Lesson 06.05 · Workbook pages 623–632

Read the core ANCOVA output

This lesson moves from the raw group averages to the table that answers the research question. You will learn what can be described before adjustment, then read the covariate, adjusted group effect, effect size, and model fit in the correct order.

The novice rule

Raw means show what happened as-is. The Tests of Between-Subjects Effects table shows what still matters after the covariate is controlled.

Output 2

Start with the raw means

The Descriptive Statistics table shows the unadjusted PostTest scores. It gives you a starting picture, not the final ANCOVA conclusion.

Descriptive Statistics

Dependent variable: PostTest

Raw PostTest scores before ANCOVA adjustment
ProgramMeanStd. DeviationN
After School80.505.28720
Saturday Academy82.405.67920
Summer Bridge86.455.53920
Total83.125.96160
Safe observation

Summer Bridge has the highest raw mean, and After School has the lowest.

Safe observation

Each group has 20 students, and the standard deviations are fairly similar.

Not safe yet

Do not say Summer Bridge is the most effective program.

Not safe yet

Do not say the groups differ significantly. This table contains no hypothesis test.

Raw means

What each group scored as-is, before controlling for Pretest.

Adjusted means

What the group averages would look like if everyone started at the same covariate level.

Common misstep

The highest raw mean is not automatically the best program. A group may start higher on Pretest, so ANCOVA waits to see what remains after adjustment.

Quick check

What can you conclude from Output 2?

Choose the statement supported by the Descriptive Statistics table.

Which statement is accurate?

Output 3

Use the table that answers the ANCOVA question

The Tests of Between-Subjects Effects table asks whether the covariate predicts the outcome and whether program differences remain after adjustment.

!

Do not read this like a standard ANOVA table. ANCOVA has a specific reading order that keeps the covariate and adjusted group effect separate.

The ANCOVA reading order

1Covariate line first: Pretest

Does the starting score relate to the ending score?

2Group line second: Program

Do program differences remain after controlling for Pretest?

3Effect size: partial eta squared

How strong is each effect?

4Model strength: R²

How much PostTest variation does the full model explain?

5Skip the Intercept

It usually does not answer the applied research question.

Worked example

Interpret Program and Pretest

The study compares three academic enrichment programs on PostTest while controlling for Pretest.

Tests of Between-Subjects Effects

Dependent variable: PostTest

Core ANCOVA output for the academic enrichment study
SourceType III Sum of SquaresdfMean SquareFSig.Partial Eta Squared
Corrected Model1994.3813664.794365.694< .001.951
Intercept796.1691796.169437.962< .001.887
Pretest1624.94811624.948893.863< .001.941
Program145.640272.82040.057< .001.589
Error101.802561.818
Corrected Total2096.18359

Model note: R² = .951; Adjusted R² = .949.

1. Covariate: Pretest

F(1, 56) = 893.863, p < .001, partial η² = .941

Pretest strongly predicts PostTest. Students’ starting scores are closely related to their ending scores, so controlling for Pretest is justified.

2. Group effect: Program

F(2, 56) = 40.057, p < .001, partial η² = .589

Program differences remain after controlling for Pretest. This is the main ANCOVA conclusion.

3. Effect size

Pretest = .941 · Program = .589

Pretest has a very large effect, and Program still has a large, meaningful effect after adjustment.

4. Model fit

R² = .951

Pretest and Program together explain about 95% of the variation in PostTest scores in this sample.

5. What this table does not tell you

It does not identify which programs differ or show the adjusted group means. Those answers require estimated marginal means and pairwise comparisons.

Do not name a winner from raw means.

ANCOVA conclusions depend on adjusted results.

Do not ignore the covariate.

Pretest is part of the result, not background noise.

Do not interpret the Intercept.

It does not answer the study’s applied question.

Do not claim causation automatically.

Causal language depends on the research design, not ANCOVA alone.

Quick check

What is the main adjusted conclusion?

Choose the statement that correctly combines the covariate and group results.

Which interpretation is correct?

Transfer practice

Use the same order in a new study

A hospital compares three discharge plans on RecoveryScore while controlling for baseline symptom severity.

Open the hospital practice output

DV: RecoveryScore · IV: DischargePlan · Covariate: SeverityBaseline

Tests of Between-Subjects Effects: hospital practice
SourcedfFSig.Partial η²
Corrected Model318.42< .001.434
Intercept12.11.151.028
SeverityBaseline139.70< .001.355
DischargePlan23.62.032.091
Error86

Model note: R² = .434; Adjusted R² = .414.

Your turn

Write the hospital conclusion

Use the covariate-first order and report only what this table supports.

Include these ideas:

SeverityBaseline predicts RecoveryScore; discharge plans still differ after adjustment; the model explains about 43% of outcome variance; adjusted means and pairwise comparisons are still needed to identify which plans differ.

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End-of-lesson checkpoint

You can now separate the starting picture from the adjusted conclusion. Next, you will examine the adjusted means themselves.